Week 1 · 2026 season
The Who Cares Poll
Three Top 25s, three completely different methods, zero actual knowledge.
LSU's 51-10 demolition of Clemson, Oregon needing a last-second miracle vs. Boise State, Miami's 45-6 statement win over Stanford, Michigan's Hail Mary escape, and Clemson's total collapse all meaningfully shift things from the preseason baseline.
Fritch Top 25The house poll. Slightly more research than the other two. Slightly.- 1
LSUPro players or not look pretty good. - 2
Ohio StateI guess we will see how good OSU is. They have a crazy amount of talent. - 3
GeorgiaWon by 60. The opponent wasn't much, but you can only beat what's in front of you, and Kirby Smart's crew didn't leave anything on the table. - 4
TexasTied for the best title odds in the country, and they host Ohio State this weekend as a slight favorite. We'll know a lot more about both teams by Sunday. - 5
IndianaThe reigning champs looked like exactly that in a 52-16 win over North Texas. - 6
Miami45-6 over Stanford with two players playing like legitimate Heisman candidates. - 7
Notre DameA team that can be uneven early and still finish a game with authority is a dangerous one. - 8
AlabamaHandled East Carolina as expected. Nothing measured yet, but nothing concerning either. - 9
OklahomaA real test looms — a trip to Michigan this weekend will tell us a lot more about where this team actually stands. - 10
Texas A&MQuiet, clean Week 1. No real signal sent yet in either direction. - 11
TennesseeStill sorting out the quarterback situation. Talented roster, unresolved question at the most important position. - 12
USCTheir title odds tightened after Week 1, a sign the market's starting to buy in more than it did in August. - 13
OregonA near-miss against an unranked opponent is a real red flag, not a footnote. - 14
BYUUndefeated, but the schedule hasn't tested them yet. The résumé is still mostly hypothetical. - 15
Texas TechWon the opener, but lost starting quarterback Brendan Sorsby to an eligibility ruling over gambling violations. That's a real problem heading into conference play. - 16
Penn StateThirty-nine new faces on the roster. Too much roster turnover to know what this team actually is yet. - 17
WashingtonQuiet, professional Week 1. Nothing that moves the needle, nothing that should worry anyone either. - 18
Virginia TechNew coach James Franklin's debut ended in a 73-3 rout of VMI. Not a real measuring stick, but a clean, confident start. - 19
CincinnatiTook care of Boston College 34-15. Solid, unspectacular, exactly what a Week 1 game against a mid-tier opponent should look like. - 20
PittsburghHandled Miami (OH) at home. A quiet, business-like start to the season. A team I think can suprise people. - 21
UtahNothing alarming, nothing standout. A program still finding its identity early in the year. - 22
LouisvilleLooked good in parts. Looked good for first game even in a lose. - 23
SMUClosed the week on the road at Florida State in a game that came down to the wire. Their margin for error going forward just got smaller. - 24
VirginiaWalked into Charlottesville and put 34 on NC State with a new quarterback looking comfortable from snap one. A legitimately encouraging start. - 25
UConnSuprise! Handled an FCS opponent at home as expected. Not enough information yet to know where this team really belongs. But got on my radar for top 25!
Gary Top 25Ranked on cold nachos, lottery scratchers and truck noises. Somehow right.- 1
Ohio StateSame spot they started, same result every week: everybody else's problem. - 2
TexasTied atop the odds board, and next week they host Ohio State as a one-point favorite. That's not a game, that's a heavyweight fight with a marching band. - 3
Notre DameSlow out the gate against Wisconsin, then flipped a switch and won goin' away. Kinda like my truck on a cold mornin'. - 4
IndianaAin't lost since December 2024. That's longer than some marriages round here. - 5
GeorgiaWon by sixty. That's not a score, that's a phone number. - 6
MiamiPut 45 on Stanford with two fellas playin' like Heisman winners. "The U is back" might actually be true this time. - 7
LSUBeat Clemson so bad Lane Kiffin was practicin' jump shots on the sideline. Man wasn't coachin' no more, he was just havin' fun. - 8
Oregoneeded a 62-yard miracle with under a minute left just to survive Boise State. Fancy uniforms don't stop a prayer from landin'. - 9
Texas A&MSolid team, solid odds, ain't done nothin' to move the needle either direction yet. - 10
AlabamaFine team, numbers just got 'em outside the top tier right now. Don't worry, still early. - 11
Texas TechWon the opener, then lost their quarterback to an ineligibility ruling over gambling violations. Son, you can't call plays from the sideline. - 12
Ole MissOdds tightened up nice. New coach's first big move workin' out so far. - 13
USCAlso tightened up, still got a ways to go before anybody takes 'em serious. - 14
OklahomaBig road test at Michigan comin' up. We'll know a whole lot more about this team by Sunday mornin'. - 15
MichiganNeeded a Hail Mary just to beat Western Michigan. That ain't dominance, that's a lucky rabbit's foot. - 16
VanderbiltQuietly sittin' in the mix with real championship odds. Nobody's talkin' about 'em, which is exactly how a sleeper stays a sleeper. - 17
Penn StateThirty-nine new fellas on the roster, still figurin' out what this team actually is. - 18
Boise StateAlmost pulled off the upset of the year against Oregon. Losin' by one score to a top-10 team on the road ain't nothin' to be ashamed of. - 19
TennesseeStill figurin' out who's takin' snaps. Crockpot lid still shut. - 20
DukeFine academic school, decent team, still not sure why Kevin won't stop talkin' about 'em. - 21
WashingtonQuiet, steady, unremarkable. Exactly the kind of team that sneaks up on you in November. - 22
BYUStill undefeated, still ain't proved much of anything yet. - 23
FloridaNew coach, same old song. We'll see if this verse ends different. - 24
South CarolinaGot a quarterback and not much else protectin' him. - 25
MissouriSolid, steady, unremarkable — and unlike some folks, ain't lost 41 points worth of face to nobody this week
Kevin Top 25Generated by a model nobody has seen, verified by nobody, delivered with total confidence.- 1
LSU51-10 over a real ACC opponent (Clemson). Every offensive and defensive category has actual signal behind it. This isn't a good week. This is a complete data set. - 2
Miami45-6 over Stanford, a legitimate Power 4 opponent, with two players producing Heisman-level efficiency numbers. QB and WR production categories both spiked to real, trustworthy highs. - 3
Ohio State56-3 over Ball State. Group of 5, but a real FBS defense to move the ball against. Combined with the best national title odds in the country, this is a fully valid data set. - 4
Texas59-7, tied for the best odds in the country. Solid underlying data, currently a co-favorite heading into their showdown with Ohio State. - 5
Notre Dame41-13 over Wisconsin, a real Big Ten opponent. Uneven first half, but the full-game numbers are legitimate. - 6
Indiana52-16 over North Texas, a real FBS opponent. Streak intact, and unlike several teams below, this data is usable. - 7
Oregon34-27 over Boise State. Real opponent, real data — and the data says something concerning: Defensive Efficiency was mediocre, allowing 27 points and needing a 62-yard touchdown with under a minute left to escape. - 8
Alabama~48-10 over East Carolina, a real FBS opponent. Clean, usable numbers across the board. - 9
Virginia34-8 over NC State, a real ACC opponent, with a new quarterback producing genuinely strong efficiency numbers in his debut. - 10
Cincinnati34-15 over Boston College, a real ACC opponent. Solid defensive numbers on real data. - 11
Ole Miss41-38 over Louisville. A real, high-quality opponent — but Defensive Efficiency allowed 38 points, which my model flags as a real concern behind the win. - 12
Penn State45-0 over Marshall, a real FBS shutout. Clean data, though not yet tested against a Power 4 opponent. - 13
Michigan13-12 over Western Michigan. Real opponent, but Offensive Efficiency was poor enough to need a Hail Mary. The data says this team has real problems even in a win. - 14
Florida66-21 over Florida Atlantic. Decent offensive output, but Defensive Efficiency allowing 21 points to a lesser opponent is a real mark against them. - 15
USCBetting Odds tightened materially, but I don't have a confirmed, verified Week 1 opponent-quality data point for them yet. Provisional placement based on odds alone. - 16
Georgia63-3 over Tennessee State — an FCS opponent. My model discounts this almost entirely. A 60-point win means nothing when it comes against a team playing a different level of football. - 17
Tennessee56-9 over Furman, also FCS. Same discount applies. The quarterback question remains completely unresolved by this game. - 18
Texas A&M50-0 over Missouri State, FCS. A shutout against a team this far below their level generates no meaningful Defensive Efficiency signal. - 19
Virginia Tech73-3 over VMI, FCS. New coach's debut looks great on paper and means almost nothing statistically. - 20
BYU63-7 over Utah Tech, FCS. Same issue. Undefeated against a schedule that hasn't actually tested anything yet. - 21
OklahomaNo confirmed Week 1 opponent data available to me yet. Their real test — at Michigan this week — will generate the first usable numbers of their season. - 22
Texas Tech33-10 over Abilene Christian, FCS — AND their starting quarterback was ruled ineligible over gambling violations this week. Invalid offensive data plus a real Roster Availability shock. This is the worst combination on the board. - 23
WashingtonReal rivalry matchup against Washington State, but I don't have a confirmed final margin to score with confidence. - 24
SMUPlayed a real Power 4 opponent (Florida State) on the road, but I don't have a confirmed final score to properly weight this. - 25
LouisvilleLost 41-38 to Ole Miss, but against real, ranked-caliber competition. My model values a competitive loss against real opposition over a hollow win against an FCS team — which is why they still make this list over several "undefeated" programs above them.