Recurring weekly segment

Loco's Locks…to Lose

Two analysts. Zero credentials. Every week, Gas Station Gary and Kevin the Machine each name one team that is going to lose. Gary bases his pick on things that have nothing to do with football and is somehow always right. Kevin cites absurdly specific statistics that do not exist and is referred to as "the Machine" whether he hits or misses.

Season scoreboard

Gary

1410

24 picks graded

vs

The Machine

159

24 picks graded

Week 2 results

Gary 93

vs

The Machine 84

Gas Station Gary

Gas Station Gary

Reads omens in the snack aisle. Somehow always right.

Kevin the Machine

Kevin the Machine

Cites statistics that do not exist, with total confidence.

Week 2 — this week's picks

Gas Station Gary

Gas Station Gary

Reads omens in the snack aisle. Somehow always right.

Says these teams lose

  1. Michigan logo

    1.Michigan

    Miss

    Still limpin' round after barely wrestlin' free from a possum last week, and a beat-up wolf ain't winnin' a fight with a hungry Sooner.

  2. UCF logo

    2.UCF

    Hit

    That Panther's sittin' comfortable on his own porch, and ain't no suit of armor stoppin' a mountain cat defendin' his territory.

  3. Duke logo

    3.Duke

    Miss

    Left the back door wide open last week lettin' up 42, and I don't know what a Blue Devil is, but imps get et same as anybody.

  4. Georgia Tech logo

    4.Georgia Tech

    Hit

    A Yellow Jacket's just a bug, and a whole army of Volunteers is fixin' to swat that nest clean off the porch.

  5. Ohio State logo

    5.Ohio State

    Hit

    A Buckeye ain't nothin' but a nut, and a nut don't stand a chance against a Longhorn with a year's worth of revenge on his mind.

  6. Iowa State logo

    6.Iowa State

    Hit

    A Hawk's got the higher ground and the home nest, and ain't no twister touches down twice in the same barn.

  7. Arkansas logo

    7.Arkansas

    Hit

    That Hog's fixin' to go rootin' around in the mountains where the air's thin, and there ain't enough slop in the world to fix that.

  8. Kentucky logo

    8.Kentucky

    Hit

    An elephant hardly notices a Wildcat swattin' at his leg; he just keeps on walkin'.

  9. Memphis logo

    9.Memphis

    Hit

    That Bronco damn near bucked off the second-best horse in the country last week, ain't no house cat tamin' him now.

  10. Southern Miss logo

    10.Southern Miss

    Hit

    A tiger doesn't play with his food this long; he just eats it, and that eagle's flying straight into a whole lotta teeth.

  11. California logo

    11.California

    Miss

    Already got run outta the woods by a Bruin last week, and ain't no piece of fruit scared of a bear that's already been beat.

  12. Arizona State logo

    12.Arizona State

    Hit

    An Aggie's just a farmer, but a farmer with the right tractor'll run over a devil, sun or otherwise, every day of the week.

Kevin the Machine

Kevin the Machine

Cites statistics that do not exist, with total confidence.

Says these teams lose

  1. Michigan logo

    1.Michigan

    Miss

    Offensive Efficiency was genuinely poor against a Group of Five defense, and that's a signal, not a fluke.

  2. UCF logo

    2.UCF

    Hit

    Betting Odds and home field both favor Pittsburgh clearly, no statistical basis to override either

  3. Illinois logo

    3.Illinois

    Hit

    Their Defensive Efficiency, allowing 23 points, is a real concern, and Duke's Prestige Adjustment tips a close call.

  4. Georgia Tech logo

    4.Georgia Tech

    Hit

    Betting Odds this lopsided reflect a measurable talent gap I see no reason to fight.

  5. Texas logo

    5.Texas

    Miss

    Ohio State's QB and WR Efficiency numbers are the best in the country right now, and that outweighs home field.

  6. Iowa State logo

    6.Iowa State

    Hit

    Odds and home field align cleanly; no override needed.

  7. Arkansas logo

    7.Arkansas

    Hit

    Utah's Offensive Efficiency this week was elite across the board, a clear statistical gap.

  8. Kentucky logo

    8.Kentucky

    Hit

    Odds and roster talent both favor Alabama significantly.

  9. Boise State logo

    9.Boise State

    Miss

    Boise's Defensive Efficiency against a ranked opponent was legitimately strong, and that carries real weight.

  10. Southern Miss logo

    10.Southern Miss

    Hit

    A spread this large reflects a talent gap too significant to argue with.

  11. California logo

    11.California

    Miss

    Their Defensive Efficiency was poor in the only data point I have, and that outweighs a one-point line.

  12. Arizona State logo

    12.Arizona State

    Hit

    Odds and roster talent both clearly favor Texas A&M.

The archive

Week 1Week 1: Tigers, Traitors, and Cheeseheads Fighting drunk Leprechauns on the Frozen TundraGary 57Machine 75
Gas Station Gary

Gas Station Gary

Reads omens in the snack aisle. Somehow always right.

Says these teams lose

  1. Miami logo

    1.Miami

    Miss

    Miami vs. Stanford — Stanford's already been through one storm; Miami's hurricane loses steam once it hits land. Loser: Miami.

  2. Auburn logo

    2.Auburn

    Miss

    Baylor vs. Auburn — Neutral field, no home cookin', and a bear don't need it. Loser: Auburn.

  3. LSU logo

    3.LSU

    Miss

    Clemson vs. LSU — LSU's roster is full of grown men with mortgages, not a football team. Loser (upset): LSU.

  4. UNLV logo

    4.UNLV

    Miss

    UNLV vs. Hawaii — Don't trust a line that came outta Vegas. Loser: UNLV.

  5. UCLA logo

    5.UCLA

    Miss

    UCLA vs. California — Bragging rights in a state that can't decide if it likes football. Loser: UCLA.

  6. Washington State logo

    6.Washington State

    Hit

    Washington State vs. Washington — Even the rivalry don't know what day it is anymore. Loser: Washington State.

  7. Duke logo

    7.Duke

    Miss

    Duke vs. Tulane — Not sure which one plays basketball better anymore. Loser: Duke.

  8. Boise State logo

    8.Boise State

    Hit

    Boise State vs. Oregon — Blue field back home, a prayer in their pocket, and that's it. Loser: Boise State.

  9. Wisconsin logo

    9.Wisconsin

    Hit

    Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame — Desperate doesn't beat talented. Loser: Wisconsin.

  10. Florida Atlantic logo

    10.Florida Atlantic

    Hit

    Florida vs. Florida Atlantic — Little brother don't never win these games. Loser: Florida Atlantic.

  11. Louisville logo

    11.Louisville

    Hit

    Louisville vs. Ole Miss — Don't bet against a fella who already beat the NCAA this week. Loser: Louisville.

  12. SMU logo

    12.SMU

    Miss

    SMU vs. Florida State — A man playin' for his job coaches different. Loser: SMU.

Kevin the Machine

Kevin the Machine

Cites statistics that do not exist, with total confidence.

Says these teams lose

  1. Miami logo

    1.Miami

    Miss

    Miami vs. Stanford — Information Asymmetry Advantage: Stanford's got a game of live data banked, Miami's got zero. Loser: Miami.

  2. Auburn logo

    2.Auburn

    Miss

    Baylor vs. Auburn — Head Coach Continuity Index sits at zero for a coach in his literal first game. Loser: Auburn.

  3. Clemson logo

    3.Clemson

    Hit

    Clemson vs. LSU — LSU's roster was built with intention and aggression; aggression wins Week 1. Loser: Clemson.

  4. UNLV logo

    4.UNLV

    Miss

    UNLV vs. Hawaii — Losing record against anything east of Nevada. Numbers don't lie. Loser: UNLV.

  5. UCLA logo

    5.UCLA

    Miss

    UCLA vs. California — Cal students are, statistically, smarter. Loser: UCLA.

  6. Washington State logo

    6.Washington State

    Hit

    Washington State vs. Washington — Temporal Displacement Variable — nobody performs well outside their circadian pattern. Loser: Washington State.

  7. Duke logo

    7.Duke

    Miss

    Duke vs. Tulane — Fine academic institution. Not Stanford. Model penalizes accordingly. Loser: Duke.

  8. Boise State logo

    8.Boise State

    Hit

    Boise State vs. Oregon — Win Probability sits at 4.2%, and that's being generous. Loser: Boise State.

  9. Wisconsin logo

    9.Wisconsin

    Hit

    Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame — False Home Field Illusion at Lambeau; Notre Dame's talent wins regardless. Loser: Wisconsin.

  10. Florida Atlantic logo

    10.Florida Atlantic

    Hit

    Florida vs. Florida Atlantic — Didn't build a model for this one. Some outcomes don't need analytics. Loser: Florida Atlantic.

  11. Louisville logo

    11.Louisville

    Hit

    Louisville vs. Ole Miss — Litigation Momentum. Louisville has no comparable legal victories. Loser: Louisville.

  12. Florida State logo

    12.Florida State

    Hit

    SMU vs. Florida State — Pressure creates collapse or peak performance. Picking collapse. Loser: Florida State.